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Coinbase, Kraken and $6.5 Billion to Buy Options and the Future
It feels like Kraken is preparing themselves for something big, and it all started four days ago when they spent $1.5 billion on a 22-year-old TradFi company...
Adam Atlantic
March 24, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
$665 billion in trading volume, $1.5 billion in revenues, $42.8 billion in custodied assets, 2.5 million accounts.[1] Kraken is one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges and a key player in the world’s crypto markets.
While it’s a private company (for now), you can buy stock through platforms like Equity Zen which currently gives Kraken a valuation in the $7 billion to $8 billion region.
It is a beast of an exchange. And my view is that it launches an official IPO on the NASDAQ this year…so long as the crypto bull market fires up.
A Kraken IPO would be a great indicator of where we’re at in the current cycle. If Bitcoin trades back over $100,000, goes on to break $200,000, then things will really get wild.
I expect the retail investors come back in droves, the market explodes another 100% to 150% from there, Kraken IPOs at a radical valuation, and only then do we start to find the top of this cycle.
Kraken Buys NinjaTrader
Of course I don’t have a crystal ball, but if Coinbase’s IPO was the top of the 2021 cycle (which it was), then if Kraken bides its time, it may be the top of the 2025 cycle.
I say this, because it feels like Kraken is preparing themselves for something big, and it all started four days ago when they spent $1.5 billion on a 22-year-old TradFi company.
Last week Kraken announced they had acquired NinjaTrader, a retail futures trading platform with nearly 2 million users, for $1.5 billion.[2]
The timing of the deal is notable as the SEC recently dismissed a lawsuit against Kraken. And with President Donald Trump’s administration clearly paving the way for the industry to grow, it does feel like the stars are aligning for Kraken.
But it’s this convergence of DeFi and TradFi, which is the best signal yet that this cycle could all be about TradFi making bigger inroads to the crypto space (even if it’s via acquisitions like this).
The acquisition announcement explains,[3]
NinjaTrader is a trusted hub for professional futures traders. With this acquisition, strategic benefits include:
U.S. Futures – NinjaTrader’s CFTC-registered FCM license allows Kraken to offer crypto futures and derivatives in the U.S.
Unlocks Global Regulatory Licensing and Growth – Kraken’s U.K. MiFID, EU MiFID, and Australian securities licenses accelerate NinjaTrader’s expansion into the U.K., Europe, and Australia.
Seamless Multi-Asset Trading – For both Kraken and NinjaTrader clients, ability to trade crypto, futures, and traditional financial products.
Access to Elite Trading Tools – Clients will benefit from NinjaTrader’s pro-grade analytics, execution engines and futures liquidity, combined with Kraken’s best-in-class crypto liquidity and trading experience.
That says to me, Kraken is buying credibility, a regulatory pass in multiple wealthy regions, and a couple million customers instantly. They bought growth.
Coinbase Buying Deribit?
With Kraken making this move, the rumours are circulating that Coinbase, the biggest U.S. crypto exchange, is in advanced talks to acquire Deribit, a Netherlands-based derivatives exchange.[4]
Deribit dominates the crypto options and futures market, processing $1.2 trillion in trading volume in 2024.[5]
This deal (said to be worth around $5 billion) would be huge for Coinbase’s derivatives arm and helping to keep it at the top of the big exchanges.
This action only takes place when a cycle is ready to boom, and these exchanges see volumes, revenues and profits explode.
They’re a great yardstick for a cycle’s momentum. And what I’m seeing now tells me that we’re getting even closer to escape velocity,
Trust in crypto,
Adam Atlantic