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Quantum computing is ready to kill bitcoin (...but probably not)
Why is there so much fear about quantum computing within bitcoin and crypto? And should you be afraid?
Adam Atlantic
January 03, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
On December 9th Google dropped a game changing announcement.[1]
They were unveiling ‘Willow’ their latest quantum chip. This chip is 10 years of development from Google’s quantum computing division. To get some insight as to how good Willow is, Google explained that:
‘Willow performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion (that is, 1025) years — a number that vastly exceeds the age of the Universe.’
They even hinted at the possibility this breakthrough in quantum computing suggested that we may even live in a multiverse.
But for all the positivity this may have for computing, it also unleashed a torrent of fear through the crypto community, specifically through the bitcoin market.
Such was the terror this quantum breakthrough delivered to bitcoiners, that its price tanked from $101,000 at the time of Google’s announcement to $94,000 just a day later.
Why is there so much fear about quantum computing within bitcoin and crypto? And should you be afraid?
Is quantum really that dangerous?
The reason for this fear about quantum computing (QC) within crypto is the theory that the raw power of a QC could easily attack a blockchain like bitcoin. Thereby mining all blocks defeating all miners, enabling previously impossible action like double spending and destroy bitcoin’s encryption protocols.
In short, a powerful QC could render bitcoin useless, and thereby worthless.
The thing is… this isn’t the first time this QC fear has circulated through crypto. It’s not the first-time skeptics have argued that bitcoin is flawed because it can’t handle what’s coming with QCs.
Source: Forbes
At the time Google stated they has achieved ‘Quantum Supremacy’ and the fears were QCs would ‘crack’ bitcoin.
They didn’t. And we’re still here five years on, same story, same fears, and same answer.
What we know is that if bitcoin never changed from here on out, and QCs became exponentially more powerful, then yes at some point in the future it’s likely a QC could crack bitcoin’s encryption.
However, not even Willow has that power yet. The estimation is around one million QC qubits would be needed to crack bitcoin, Willow has 105.[2]
We also know there are several crypto algorithms theorised, in the works or available now that are expected to be quantum-resistant.
These include Lamport signatures,[3] ideal lattice cryptography and SHA-384 encryption. Crucially, protecting bitcoin and other crypto against QCs is something that developers have been aware of for at least a decade.
That means a significant number of resources are directed toward quantum-cryptography, and post-quantum encryption.
For example, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)[4] is actively working on a standardised method for quantum-proof encryption with four quantum resistant algorithms ready to go.
Will bitcoin survive quantum computers?
The good news is that yes, bitcoin will be safe from quantum computing.
And in terms of getting bitcoin ready for it, thanks to the fact it is programmable money, you can upgrade its network. And that’s exactly what will happen. The expectation is a soft fork could implement these post-quantum solutions, and nothing changes.
Skeptics will continue to use the quantum argument as a reason to avoid bitcoin and crypto, and they’ll continue to be wrong as they’ve been for several years now.
Bitcoin is sound money, digital gold, the best performing asset in history. And without too much fuss it will be quantum resistant too. Which makes an even stronger case long term for it to become a global reserve currency and the most valuable asset in the world.
Trust in crypto,
Adam Atlantic